While it's usually too early to project predictions, well-known Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has a different perspective on the big tech company. In his latest post, he thinks Apple is going to have a tough year due to the stagnant iPhone growth.
During the Q4 of 2024, it was thought that the iPhone 16 Series could make some sales in China and the first wave of Apple Intelligence was also released around that time. However, data suggests that iPhone shipments dropped by 10-12% YoY, showing a decline in Apple's share in the Chinese market. To be fair, overall phone shipments were flat compared to December 2023.
To make matters worse, most iPhone users (alongside Samsung users for Galaxy AI) are not interested in Apple Intelligence at all from a recent survey. Kuo said this aligns with his latest supply chain survey, heavily backing up that Apple Intelligence has not boosted iPhone demand. Although it made an impression at WWDC 2024, interest has faded away compared to cloud-based AI services.
Looking forward, Kuo said Apple has become more cautious in discussing 2025 iPhone production plans with key suppliers. Rumours say the new iPhone SE 4 is expected to launch in mid-2025 but is projected to decline by about 6% YoY. Even the anticipated iPhone 17 Air could face a challenge in China (and other Asian countries) as it is said to support eSIM only.
The iPhone 17 Air could ship in higher volumes than the Plus variant but might not be enough to boost iPhone sales. This is due to "downgraded components paired with a high price and a user experience similar to current models", noted Kuo. If you would like to read the full details of his notes, you can visit his website right over here.
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